ABI Research

ABI Research estimates that there will be nearly 1.37 billion 4G LTE subscribers worldwide by year-end 2015, up from nearly 650 million in 2014. ABI Research forecasts that the LTE subscriber base will exceed 3.5 billion by 2020, demonstrating a 5 year CAGR of 20.8%. The exponential rise in LTE points-of-presence covered justifies the need for sustained investment in LTE infrastructure, which is expected to grow nearly 10% year-on-year.

LTE-Advanced networks have been actively deployed around the world. At the end of 2014, LTE-Advanced covered its first 100 million people worldwide, just four years since the network’s inception. ABI Research predicts that the coverage will reach 1 billion in four more years.

Tracking rail carts with GPS and cellular could bring value to the rail sector; however, penetration rates on rail carts are currently very low (globally less than 50,000 in 2014), and growth is not forecasted to be very strong over the next 5 years, or even the next 10, according to ABI Research. Therefore, for the time being at least, it looks like RFID will dominate this sector.

Mobile broadband modems used in mobile devices and computing outside of smartphones continued to decline over 1H 2014, according to the latest study from ABI Research.

According to a new market data forecasts from ABI Research, it will take more than 5 years for 5G to reach 100 million subscriber mark—2 years longer than 4G. 4G subscriber growth was much faster than with previous generations, fueled by the capabilities of increasingly powerful smartphones and the availability of 4G devices. 5G subscriber growth will likely be a bit more muted at first due to the increased complexity of 5G cells and networks, but will pick up in 2023.

Mandated by the European Commission and supported by the dynamic railway industry in the region, the GSM-R system has established a significant market in Europe. Over the past few years the market extended to regions outside Europe including Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa. Led by Nokia, Kapsch CarrierCom and Huawei, GSM-R track coverage is growing to 190,000 km by 2020.

Work on new technologies that will form the foundation of 5G standards has been occurring for the last few years; however, the formal standards process has just begun, according to ABI Research.

 ABI Research estimates that 676 million 4G LTE handsets will be shipped in 2015, growing 204 million units from 2014. Furthermore, ABI Research estimates that the total number of LTE connected devices shipped worldwide will exceed 1.89 billion units by end 2019, demonstrating the need for infrastructure and spectrum to support the stellar growth in the industry. 

ABI Research expects the small cell backhaul equipment market to exceed $5 billion in 2019, which aligns with operators’ deliberate approach to small cell deployments.

The installed base for 802.15.4-enabled devices is forecast to increase almost fivefold over the next 5 years, rising from just under 425 million to over 2.1 billion in 2019, findsABI Research.