Figure 1 Historical RU/AAU Shipments, 2010-2023. Source: EJL Wireless Research LLC ©2024.
Figure 2 Single-sector, low-band integration. Source: EJL Wireless Research LLC ©2024.
2024 marks a critical fork in the road for the wireless radio access market and industry. The majority of 5G New Radio (NR) non-standalone (NSA) deployments have been completed at most, if not all, Tier 1 mobile operators worldwide. Network modernization projects continue at a slower cadence than the initial rollout of 5G NR networks in the previous five years as the industry is in the midst of a global capital expenditure (CAPEX) slowdown for wireless RAN equipment. The future for the industry looks dim, unless you are in the local Chinese market.
LOOKING BACK AT HISTORY
Shipments for radio units/active antenna units (RUs/AAUs) in 2023 reached the third-highest level since 2010. They have recovered significantly from the most recent industry bottom in 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is worth noting that RUs deployed during the 5G cycle are primarily multi-band 4T4R configurations as opposed to the single-band 2T2R/4T4R configurations during the 4G cycle. Additionally, there has been a higher mix of 5G NR AAUs shipped during the 5G cycle as compared to the 4G TDD-LTE AAUs shipped during the 4G cycle. The lower shipment volumes in the 5G cycle reflect the cannibalization of single-band 4G RUs and the artificial negative impact from 2020 to 2021 from COVID-19. The latest RU/AAU historical summary from EJL Wireless is shown in Figure 1.
FORWARD-LOOKING TRENDS FOR RU/AAU MACRO SITE DEPLOYMENT
Given CAPEX guidance from major mobile operators globally, the current outlook for 2024 RAN equipment is very negative. The need to “monetize 5G” for mobile operators is shifting the financial focus to a lower CAPEX run rate in the future. Additionally, the majority of mobile operators have deployed Phase 1 network coverage requirements for their 5G networks and are waiting for Phase 2 network capacity enhancements.
MACRO SITE TOWER/ROOFTOP TRENDS
The landscape is challenging for mobile operators planning to deploy mobile networks and RU/AAUs in 2024 and beyond. The following concerns are likely to shape their decisions:
- Nearly all mobile towers are no longer owned and operated by the mobile operator, which increases the focus on reducing operating expenses (OPEX) for leasing tower sites
- Reducing forward OPEX costs involves a network modernization strategy to upgrade older legacy equipment with the most integrated RUs and passive antennas
- The typical five-band macro site uses frequency bands of 800/900/1800/2100/2600 MHz or 600/700/800/1900/2100 MHz. These sites use one single-band radio per frequency band per sector, resulting in 15 macro RUs, which put pressure on OPEX
- The single-band, low-band macro 2T2R RUs typically use 600/700/800/900 MHz frequency bands and they need to be upgraded to dual-band or triple-band macro RUs to reduce total radio count per sector
- The single-band, mid-band macro 4T4R RUs that use 1800/1900/2100/2600 MHz frequencies need to be upgraded to dual-band at 1800/2100 MHz or 1900/2100 MHz or triple-band at 1800/2100/2600 MHz macro RUs to reduce total radio count per sector
- The mobile operator must choose between a radio integration-per-sector or a radio integration-per-site modernization strategy. A radio-per-sector strategy focuses on integrating frequency bands and radios for a single sector of a macro site, usually grouping frequency bands (low or mid). A radio-per-site strategy would be like the old Nokia Flexi radio architecture, where all three sectors for multiple frequency bands (low-band, mid-band or both) are combined into a single-site radio unit. ZTE Corporation is leading the charge for multi-band integration.
Part of the challenge for operators is that many combinations of frequency bands and radio architectures are used in base stations to meet subscriber needs. The following diagrams provide examples of some integration strategies the operators and equipment manufacturers are pursuing. Figure 2 shows an integration concept for a single sector, multi-band, macro RU.
Figure 3 shows an example of integrating multi-band, mid-band radios into a dual-band radio in a single sector, along with a single-band, mid-band radio.
Figure 3 Single-sector, multi-band and single-band integration. Source: EJL Wireless Research LLC ©2024.
Figure 4 Single-sector, mid-band RRU integration. Source: EJL Wireless Research LLC ©2024.
Figure 4 shows the same single-sector, multi-band integration shown in Figure 2, but at mid-band frequencies.
Figure 5 ZTE macro RU integration. Source: ZTE Corporation, EJL Wireless Research LLC ©2024.
Figure 5 conceptually shows what ZTE is doing to lead the way in single-sector, multi-band, low-/mid-band macro RU integration. Finally, Figure 6 shows a representative diagram of what the company is doing to integrate multiple sectors, bands and radios into a single RU for the base station.
Figure 6 Tri-sector, multi-band, mid-band Macro RU integration. Source: ZTE Corporation, EJL Wireless Research LLC ©2024.
