RF to Light 100: Investors Predict Growth Markets

The RF to Light 100 rose 2.2% last week, YTD +12% at 2409. Nasdaq up 2.5%. Shares of Amkor climbed 26% after the semiconductor chip assembly & test company posted an unexpectedly higher 3Q profit with the help from strong demand. They also indicated a 4Q slowdown wouldn't be as severe as expected. Cisco reported strong profit with the help of acquired Scientific-Atlanta - shares up 11%. Competitor Juniper did even better with +16%. Although GDP is down to 1.6%, the US growth rate may have bottomed 5 weeks ago at -1% and stands now at + 0.3%. Headline inflation dropped dramatically in September to 2.1%. Although the RF to Light 100 at 2409 is close to the top again, market timing indicators say that the market is closer to oversold. If all the anticipated bad things are not going to happen, we may witness a rally.

In the news: with the Democrats having majority in the House and Senate, investors focused on likely winners and losers: Early indications were that winners could include alternative energy, stem cell research and Government housing agencies. Losers could be pharmaceutical and defense sectors. China's foreign currency reserves exceeded $ 1,000bn for the first time (Japan's is about $ 900bn). China wants to diversify more its large exchange stockpiles, pushing the dollar down.

Market oversold indicator : down to 77%
Market overbought indicator: up to 52%

New Highs: AGR, AV, CMCSA, CSCO, ELMG, ERIC, FSL, HLIT, IBM, MSFT, TWX.
New Lows : EDO, HEII

Top 5 - last week: Amkor (26%), Juniper (16%), Conexant (13%),Cisco (11%), Anadigics (8%)

- YTD : Broadwing (155%), Rogers (82%), Avici (78%), Finisar (77%), Atheros (72%)

Bottom 5 - last week: HEI (-12%), Nortel (-10%), Motorola (-7%), MRV (-4%), Texas Instruments (-3%)

- YTD : HEI (-62%), Powerwave (-50%), ADC (-37%),Bookham (-37%), Zhone (-36%)

by Sectors:

Space & Defense : +1%, YTD +15%

Communic. Services: -1%, YTD +32%

Network Systems : +3%, YTD - 4%

RF Semiconductors : +3%, YTD + 6%

RF Components : +3%, YTD +15%