Day 3+ Phase – Cooperative Driving: This deployment phase will take advantage of vehicles with increasing automated driving capabilities (SAE level 3 and level 4). All the functionalities introduced in the Day 2 Phase will be reused and applied in a stricter way to support highly automated driving use cases including cooperative merging, cooperative lane change and cooperative overtaking functionality.
CHINA LEADS V2X ADOPTION
The China Industry Innovation Alliance for the Intelligent and Connected Vehicles alliance issued the “Technology Roadmap for Intelligent and Connected Vehicles 2.0” in January 2021. The objectives include C-V2X being installed in at least 50 percent of new vehicles assembled in 2025 with a goal of most vehicles having C-V2X installed by 2030. While TechInsights does not believe that the 50 percent goal will be reached by 2025, the addition of V2X in the China New Car Assessment Program (C-NCAP) ratings will promote the adoption of V2X in the region. China has adopted the technical route of C-V2X from the very beginning on a national level. They have allocated the 5905 to 5925 MHz band to C-V2X.
STALLED V2X DEPLOYMENT IN THE U.S., KOREA AND EUROPE
In Europe, ETSI has approved the use of C-V2X as an access layer technology for ITS devices for vehicles and roadside infrastructure. Regulators in the European Union, Japan, South Korea and the U.S. are still finalizing regional and national spectrum allocation details. This will determine how the 5.9 GHz band will be used for V2X.
The NHTSA remains strongly interested in V2X technologies but they are not included in the current NCAP roadmap. They are considering various V2X deployment issues, including technological evolution and regulatory changes to the radio spectrum environment. The lack of an NHTSA mandate, or timeline for a potential mandate, along with the compressed spectrum availability for V2X in the U.S. will likely limit OEM adoption through 2024/2025. There is potential for an uptick in adoption by OEMs post-2024/2025 if wireless spectrum allocations become clearer and waivers are not needed, assuming a supportive regulatory framework is in place.
In December 2019, the U.S. FCC unanimously voted to allocate the lower 45 MHz of the previously dedicated 5.9 GHz automotive safety band to unlicensed uses such as Wi-Fi. They also allocated the upper 30 MHz for C-V2X. The FCC decision made clear that only the remaining 30 MHz would be dedicated to V2X technology and that cellular-based C-V2X was the winning protocol. The FCC’s decision specified a 2024 timeframe for existing DSRC equipment to be removed from the reallocated spectrum. There is concern that the remaining 30 MHz is limited by interference and bandwidth limitations and may be limited to basic safety messaging within 20 MHz of the allocated 30 MHz.
In April of 2023, the FCC granted a waiver that allows proponents of C-V2X to use the upper 30 MHz of the 5.9 GHz band. Waiver applicants will be allowed to deploy C-V2X RSUs and OBUs ahead of the final rules. Waiver applicants include vehicle OEMs Audi, Ford and Jaguar Land Rover.
CHALLENGES FOR V2X
Unfortunately for the global automotive industry, the lifesaving promise of V2X technology remains tangled in regulatory clashes concerning specification and spectrum allocation debates. China is the only region of the world that has a clear deployment strategy for V2X technology. V2X adoption continues to be hampered by wireless spectrum allocation, the lack of government mandates or NCAP rating credits and vehicle OEMs taking a wait-and-see approach to see which protocol gains favor within the industry or through mandate and if other vehicle OEMs will adopt the technology.
In the short- to medium-term, both 802.11-based DSRC/ITS-G5 and C-V2X will see market deployment. Near-term deployments of V2X will vary by region with Europe and Japan continuing DSRC efforts while China and the U.S. favor C-V2X solutions. Though DSRC/ITS-G5 and C-V2X share the same wireless spectrum, the technologies are not interoperable.
Figure 4 Global light vehicle V2X forecast. Source: TechInsights.
The continued rollout of 5G networks will undoubtedly help support C-V2X adoption, but applications between two suitably equipped vehicles or a vehicle and an RSU do not require 5G network coverage. V2V and V2I applications built on C-V2X can be launched independently of the 5G network rollout. The 5G Automotive Association (5GAA) foresees an important medium-term (2025 to 2027) objective aimed at confirming the 5.9 GHz spectrum configuration for mass adoption of C-V2X-direct radios for advanced driving in different regions of the world. TechInsights’ latest global light vehicle V2X forecast is shown in Figure 4.
This forecast includes the following assumptions:
China: C-NCAP 2023 includes V2X protocols in its rating system incentivizing OEMs to implement V2X solutions that will be scored as extra points for a five-star rating. Though not a specifically mandated requirement, these protocols can score up to 10 safety-assist points as an incentive award. C-V2X deployments have started mostly on luxury segment vehicles but will continue to gain traction on lower segments, with Ford already deploying C-V2X in the region, as NCAP points are awarded.
- V2X penetration will see more rapid growth from 2024 and reach 60 percent of vehicle production in 2030.
- Stronger points allocation and a potential mandate for V2X is possible by 2030, driving higher V2X adoption rates.
Europe: The EU remains undecided on V2X protocol adoption and a V2X NCAP mandate is stalled due to uncertainty in the industry concerning V2X protocol selection. Though the Volkswagen (VW) Group has deployed V2X, other OEMs are waiting for a clear 5.9 GHz spectrum allocation and a finalized Euro NCAP points allocation plan in 2026, along with the potential for a V2X mandate that is likely in 2029. VW has deployed DSRC-based V2X as standard equipment in its 2020 Golf model and has extended the technology to its ID. electric vehicles. The VW Group had planned to roll the technology out to all VW Group vehicles but this strategy seems to have stalled.
- V2X penetration will begin to expand from 2026 through 2029 due to the Euro NCAP V2X points award incentive.
- The proposed 2029 mandate will likely include a phase-in period, meaning full penetration of V2X will not occur until after 2030, which is beyond the time horizon of our latest forecast report.
North America: V2X is not one of the proposed ADAS technologies in the NHTSA’s NCAP upgrade proposal that was published in March 2022.
- This lack of a mandate, or even a timeline for a potential mandate, along with the compressed spectrum availability for V2X in the U.S. will likely limit OEM adoption through 2025/2026.
- V2X deployments on vehicles produced in North America dipped considerably in 2020 as the DSRC V2X-equipped Cadillac CTS went out of production.
- V2X deployments will begin to rise again in late 2024 as Ford implements C-V2X and other automakers such as GM, Jaguar Land Rover and Toyota likely follow in subsequent years.
- Though there is some OEM interest in V2X deployment, the lack of a mandate and spectrum limitations cap V2X implementation to only 16 percent of vehicles produced in 2030 in North America.
Other regions: Deployments in Japan are mostly implemented from retrofits of 5.8 GHz DSRC OBUs for electronic toll collection (ETC) and ITS applications. The 760 MHz DSRC V2X systems have only been implemented by a handful of Toyota Group models and can only be used in Japan as the frequency band has not been standardized in other market regions.
- Demand in Japan will continue to include DSRC V2X deployment, due to its earlier implementation for ETC and ITS.
- C-V2X has been tested in Japan since 2021, but the technology remains in the experimental stage at this point.
Other emerging market regions like Brazil, India, Russia and Thailand will lag further behind as they lack the public financing to invest in ITS projects and supporting infrastructure, along with consumers not being able to afford the cost of V2X systems.
Reference
- CAR 2 CAR Communication Consortium, www.car-2-car.org.
